📉 Nifty 50 Analysis & Option Strategy – 11 July 2025
🔍 Market Overview
Nifty 50 is trading below key short-term supports after breaking down from its rising parallel channel. The price is currently taking support near the 20 EMA on the daily chart, around the 25,285 level.
With Stochastic RSI showing weakness on both daily and hourly timeframes, the index appears poised for limited upside and possible continued correction unless we reclaim the 25,348–25,385 zone.
🔑 Key Support & Resistance Levels
| Level Type | Price (₹) | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 25,348–25,385 | EMA cluster & intraday swing highs |
| Resistance 2 | 25,450 | Horizontal resistance + trendline zone |
| Support 1 | 25,285 | 20 EMA (daily) – currently holding |
| Support 2 | 25,168 | 100 EMA (hourly) – key breakdown area |
| Support 3 | 25,000–25,050 | Strong swing zone (last low base) |
🧠 Trend Bias: Mildly Bearish
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Price structure is showing lower highs, lower lows intraday.
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Daily chart is losing momentum with Stoch RSI < 20.
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Any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless bulls regain 25,450+ quickly.
🔧 Intraday Strategy (July 11 Expiry)
🟡 Bear Call Spread (Hedged Option Trade)
| Leg | Strike | Premium (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Sell | 25,400 CE | ₹55 |
| Buy | 25,500 CE | ₹25 |
| Net Credit | ₹30 | |
| Max Profit | ₹30 | If Nifty stays below 25,400 |
| Max Loss | ₹70 | Above 25,500 CE Breakeven |
Suitable for sideways to mildly bearish view intraday.
🔄 Weekly Strategy (17 July 2025 Expiry)
🔻 Bear Put Spread (Positional Strategy)
| Leg | Strike | Premium (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 25,300 PE | ₹125 |
| Sell | 25,100 PE | ₹65 |
| Net Cost | ₹60 | |
| Max Profit | ₹140 | If Nifty closes below 25,100 |
| Breakeven | 25,240 |
Designed to capture 100–150 point fall next week with limited risk.
🔚 Summary
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🔽 Bearish bias below 25,350
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⚠️ Key level to hold = 25,285
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📆 Use hedged option strategies for both intraday and weekly expiry to limit risk
🛡️ Disclaimer
This blog is created solely for educational and informational purposes. The content provided here, including strategies, charts, and levels, does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, options, or derivatives.
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Viewers must consult their SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any financial decisions. The author and publisher will not be held liable for any loss or damage arising from the use of this information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All charts are for illustrative purposes and may not reflect real-time data.
