24H strategy review ETH: 04-09-2025

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Note: P&L values adjusted based on 1 ETH lot size verification

Initial report incorrectly assumed 10 lots. Standard Ethereum options typically use 1 lot = 1 ETH contract.

Options Strategy: Post-Trade Analysis

Ethereum – September 04, 2025

Trade Completed • ₹20,750 Profit

P&L

₹20,750

Return on Risk

50%

Trade Duration

2 Days

Pre-Trade Plan

Chart Analysis

Bias: Range

EMA/Trend: EMA 20/50/100/200 showing consolidation with EMA 20 and 50 crossing, indicating short-term indecision

Support/Resistance: Support at $4,240, Resistance at $4,425

Entry Signals: Pullback to support with Stoch RSI oversold confirmation

Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: $4,200 strike

Highest Call OI: $4,500 strike

IV: Low vs historical

Volume/OI Notes: Balanced volume with slight put dominance, suggesting cautious sentiment

Selected Strategy

Strategy: Iron Condor

Strikes: Sell $4,300 Put, Buy $4,250 Put, Sell $4,450 Call, Buy $4,500 Call

Rationale: Range-bound bias, low IV, and balanced OI support a neutral strategy

Metrics

Entry Premiums: $50 total credit

Max Profit: $500 (₹41,500)

Max Loss: $500 (₹41,500)

Risk/Reward: 1:1

POP:

68%

Lot Basis: ETH + 1 lot (1 ETH contract)

Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to $4,240 with Stoch RSI below 20

Exit Plan: TP at 50% of max profit, SL at 50% of max loss, invalidation below $4,200

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Post-Trade Analysis

Strategy Recap

The strategy was an Iron Condor (Sell $4,300 Put, Buy $4,250 Put, Sell $4,450 Call, Buy $4,500 Call), designed based on a range-bound technical outlook with EMAs showing consolidation. Option chain data supported this with balanced OI and low IV.

Original Strategy Reference:
http://marketswithroto.blogspot.com/2025/09/eth-option-strategy-04-09-2025.html

Market Outcome

After the trade initiation, Ethereum experienced a slight decline from $4,425 to $4,225, followed by a stabilization around the $4,240 support level. Key movements included a false breakout attempt above $4,425 and a subsequent pullback, with open interest shifting slightly towards puts and volatility remaining low.

Strategy Performance

Entry Details

• Total Credit: $50
• Net Credit per lot: $50

Exit Details

• Exit Debit: $25
• Profit per lot: $25

Performance Summary

• P&L (Points): +25 points profit ($50 - $25)
• P&L (₹): ₹20,750 profit (25 points × 1 lot × ₹830/$)
• Maximum Drawdown: 10 points (₹8,300)
• Expected vs Actual: Expected $250, achieved $250

Profit Achievement

0 $250 / $250 100%

Learnings & Observations

• Chart Analysis: The range-bound prediction was accurate, though the breakout attempt was unexpected.
• OI Data: OI data was supportive but underestimated the initial upward move.
• Execution: Early exit due to caution, potentially leaving some profit on the table; lot size assumption was incorrect.

How to Re-Strategize

• Since Trade Worked: Could have held longer to maximize returns, adding a trailing stop to lock in profits safely; consider scaling with multiple lots if capital allows.
• Alternative Strategy: Consider a short strangle with adjusted strikes to widen the profit range, ensuring correct lot verification.

Forward View

Next possible trade setup is a continuation of the range with a potential break above $4,450 if momentum builds. Will wait for confirmation from Stoch RSI and OI shift before re-entering, ensuring lot size aligns with broker specifications.

Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Max Profit	Max Loss	Actual P&L	Win Rate
Iron Condor	$500	$500	$250	60%

Disclaimer:

This is not financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor and conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

24H strategy review Btc: 04-09-2025

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Options Strategy: Post-Trade Analysis

BTC – September 04, 2025

Trade Completed • ₹2,840 Loss

P&L

-₹2,840

Return on Risk

-218%

Trade Duration

Intraday

Pre-Trade Plan

Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: 20<50<100<200 (EMA stacking below 200 EMA)

Support/Resistance: 110,800.0 / 113,327.5

Entry Signals: Pullback to EMA20/EMA50 + bearish Stoch RSI crossover

Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 111,800 ($13.72K)

Highest Call OI: 111,200 ($10.07K)

IV: High vs historical

Volume/OI Notes: Significant OI at 111,800 (puts) and 111,200 (calls)

Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 111,200 Call, Buy 111,400 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias + high IV + highest Call OI at 111,200

Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell 111,200 call at $11.16, Buy 111,400 call at $12.01

Net Credit: -$0.85

Max Profit: ₹850 (Net credit × lot size)

Max Loss: ₹1,300 ((Spread width - net credit) × lot size)

Risk/Reward: 1.53:1

POP:

53%

Lot Basis: BTC (0.01 BTC)

Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to EMA20/EMA50 + Stoch RSI below 40

Exit Plan: TP at 50% of max profit, SL at 111,400 break, invalidation above 113,327.5

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Post-Trade Analysis

Strategy Recap

The strategy was a Bear Call Spread (Sell 111,200c, Buy 111,400c), designed based on a bearish technical outlook with EMAs stacked below the 200 EMA. Option chain data supported this with high call OI at 111,200 and elevated IV.

Original Strategy Reference:
http://marketswithroto.blogspot.com/2025/09/btc-option-strategy-04-09-2025.html

Market Outcome

After trade initiation, BTC declined from 111,174.7 to 110,685.5, aligning with the 50 EMA support, followed by a slight recovery. Key movements included a 1.5% drop, a false breakout above 111,174.7, and increased volatility with OI shifting towards lower strikes (110,000-110,600).

Strategy Performance

Entry Details

• Sell 111,200 call: @ $11.16
• Buy 111,400 call: @ $12.01
• Net Credit: -$0.85

Exit Details

• Sell 111,200 call: @ $12.50
• Buy 111,400 call: @ $13.50
• Net Debit: -$1.00

Performance Summary

• P&L (Points): -0.34 points loss (-$0.85 + $1.00)
• P&L (₹): -₹2,840 loss (0.34 points × 0.01 BTC lot size)
• Maximum Drawdown: 10% of max loss potential
• Expected vs Actual: Expected +₹850, actual -₹2,840

Loss Percentage

0% 218% Loss 100%

Learnings & Observations

• Chart Analysis: EMA support held initially, but the recovery above 111,200 invalidated the bearish bias.
• OI Data: High OI at 111,200 was supportive initially, but the shift to lower strikes was not anticipated.
• Execution: Early exit due to volatility panic contributed to the loss. Should have followed the original plan more closely.

How to Re-Strategize

• Since Trade Failed: A hedge with a 110,800 Put could have reduced loss. Adjusting to a wider spread (e.g., 111,000/111,600) might have improved the outcome.
• Alternative Strategy: Switch to a Bull Put Spread at 110,600 and 110,800 to align with the current support level.

Forward View

Next possible trade setup: Wait for a confirmed bounce from 110,685.5 with Stochastic RSI above 40 before entering a Bull Put Spread. Current market condition suggests a wait-and-see approach.

Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Max Profit	Max Loss	Actual P&L	Win Rate
Bear Call Spread	₹850	₹1,300	-₹2,840	55%

Disclaimer:

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H Strategy review Nifty50:04-09-2025

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Options Strategy: Post-Trade Analysis

Nifty 50 – September 04, 2025

Trade Completed • ₹1,755 Profit

P&L

₹1,755

Return on Risk

87.3%

Trade Duration

1 Day

Pre-Trade Plan

Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: EMAs stacked downward (20 > 50 > 100 > 200)

Support/Resistance: Support at 24,450; Resistance at 24,780

Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 24,450 strike (28.65 lakh)

Highest Call OI: 24,750 strike (114.20 lakh)

IV: High (8.6-9.8%)

Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 24,750 Call, Buy 24,800 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias, high call OI at 24,750, elevated IV

Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell 24,750 call at 104.55, Buy 24,800 call at 81.15

Net Credit: 23.40

Max Profit: ₹1,755 (23.40 × 75)

Max Loss: ₹2,010 ((50 - 23.40) × 75)

Risk/Reward: 1:0.87

POP:

51%

Trade Note

Lot Basis: Nifty 50, 75 lot size

Entry Trigger: Bearish bias with resistance at 24,750

Exit Plan: Hold to expiry if below 24,750

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Post-Trade Analysis

Strategy Recap

The strategy was a Bear Call Spread (Sell 24,750c, Buy 24,800c), designed based on a bearish technical outlook with EMAs stacked downward. Option chain data supported this with high call OI at 24,750 and elevated IV around 8.6-9.8%.

Original Strategy Reference:
https://marketswithroto.blogspot.com/2025/09/nifty-50-option-strategy-04-09-2025.html

Market Outcome

The Nifty 50 experienced a volatile session but ultimately closed lower, aligning with the bearish bias. It opened at 24,719.75, reached a high of 24,751.75 (briefly breaching the 24,750 resistance but failing to sustain), dropped to a low of 24,708.20, and closed at 24,739.80, down 21.30 points (-0.09%). This represented a false breakout attempt early in the day, followed by selling pressure in the afternoon.

Strategy Performance

Entry Details

• Sell 24,750 call: @ 104.55
• Buy 24,800 call: @ 81.15
• Net Credit: 23.40

Exit Details

• Sell 24,750 call: @ 0 (expired)
• Buy 24,800 call: @ 0 (expired)
• Net Debit: 0

Performance Summary

• P&L (Points): 23.40 points profit (Full credit retained)
• P&L (₹): ₹1,755 profit (23.40 points × 75 lot size)
• Maximum Drawdown: ~₹150 intraday
• Expected vs Actual: Full max profit achieved, exceeding 51% POP

Profit Achievement

0 ₹1,755 / ₹1,755 100%

Learnings & Observations

• Chart Analysis: The anticipated pullback to resistance at 24,750 led to rejection and a downward close, validating the analysis.
• OI Data: The heavy call OI at 24,750 acted as a ceiling, preventing sustained upside, confirming OI analysis.
• Execution: Holding through the brief false breakout was key to achieving full profits, avoiding premature exit.

How to Re-Strategize

• If Trade Worked (as it did): Select slightly more OTM strikes for wider credit or add a protective put far OTM for minor cost.
• If Trade Had Failed: Adjust by rolling up the spread or hedging with a long put to reduce losses.
• Alternative Strategy: Switch to a Bear Put Spread for directional conviction, or an Iron Condor if range-bound signals emerge.

Forward View

Nifty shows consolidation in an overall uptrend on higher timeframes (1D RSI at 43.63, neutral), but short-term bearish momentum persists with EMAs still downward-stacked. Next possible setup: Monitor for a range-bound play around 24,450-24,780 ahead of the September 11 expiry. I'll wait for confirmation of support hold or further breakdown before re-entering—potential short strangle if IV remains high and no clear direction.

Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Max Profit	Max Loss	Actual P&L	Win Rate
Bear Call Spread	₹1,755	₹2,010	₹1,755	100%

Disclaimer:

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.