ETH Option Strategy: 03 -09- 2025

Options Strategy Report

ETH – Tue, 02 Sep 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bullish

EMA/Trend: 20>50>100>200 (stacked bullish)

Support/Resistance: Support at 4,222.94, Resistance at 4,442.44

Entry Signals: 15m pullback to EMA20/EMA50 with Stoch RSI crossover above 40

🖼️ 15 Min Chart

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 4,300 (OI: $377.42K)

Highest Call OI: 4,400 (OI: $132.07K)

IV: Low (based on bid/ask premiums)

Volume/OI Notes: Significant OI clusters at 4,300 and 4,400 strikes

🎯 Selected Strategy

Strategy: Calendar Spread

Strikes: 4,300 Put / 4,400 Call

Rationale: Bullish bias with low IV and price between support/resistance OI clusters

💰 Metrics

Entry Premiums: $115.08 (Call), $89.72 (Put)

Max Profit: $25.36 × 0.1 ETH

Max Loss: $100 - $25.36

Risk/Reward: 0.25

POP: ~70%

Lot Basis: ETH + 0.1 ETH

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to 4,300 with Stoch RSI confirmation

Exit Plan: TP at 10%, SL at 5%, Invalidation below 4,222.94

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

• Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading (Low brokerage, free research)
• Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options (Get referral benefits)

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

BTC option strategy: 03-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

BTC – Tue, 02 Sep 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: 20<50<100<200, price below EMAs

Support/Resistance: Support at 109,228.7; Resistance at 113,493.4

Entry Signals: Pullback to EMA20/50 with Stoch RSI crossover below 20

🖼️ 15 Min Chart

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 109,950 (OI: $80.6K)

Highest Call OI: 110,000 (OI: $538.9K)

IV: High (based on premium spread)

Volume/OI Notes: Significant volume at 110,000 strike

🎯 Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 110,000 Call, Buy 110,500 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias, high IV, resistance at 110,000 OI zone

💰 Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell $1,368.3, Buy $1,115.0

Max Profit: $253.3 × 0.01 BTC = $2.53

Max Loss: 500 - 253.3 = $246.7

Risk/Reward: 2.53 / 246.7 ≈ 0.01

POP: ≈ 1 - |0.33| = 67%

Lot Basis: BTC + 0.01 BTC

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to 109,950 with Stoch RSI confirmation

Exit Plan: TP at 50% max profit, SL at 110,500, invalidation above 110,000

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

• Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading (Low brokerage, free research)
• Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options (Get referral benefits)

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

Nifty 50 option strategy: 03-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

NIFTY – Tue, 02 Sep 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: 20>50>100>200 (downtrend on 1h/4h, flat on 1D)

Support/Resistance: Support at 24,400, Resistance at 24,700

Entry Signals: Pullback to EMA20/EMA50 on 15m + Stoch RSI crossover below 20

🖼️ 15 Min Chart

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 24,400 (6.79 lakhs)

Highest Call OI: 24,600 (13.63 lakhs)

IV: High (IV ranging from 9.7 to 11.0)

Volume/OI Notes: Significant OI clusters at 24,400 (Put) and 24,600 (Call)

🎯 Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Short 24,600 Call, Long 24,700 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias + high IV + OI clusters at 24,600 resistance

💰 Metrics

Entry Premiums: 137.75 (24,600 Call) - 114.00 (24,700 Call) = 23.75

Max Profit: ₹23.75 × 75 = ₹1,781.25

Max Loss: 100 - 23.75 = ₹76.25 × 75 = ₹5,718.75

Risk/Reward: 1,781.25 ÷ 5,718.75 ≈ 0.31

POP: ≈ 1 - |0.31| ≈ 69%

Lot Basis: Nifty + 75

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to EMA20/EMA50 on 15m + Stoch RSI below 20

Exit Plan: TP at 50% of max profit (₹890.63), SL at 24,650, invalidation above 24,700

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

• Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading (Low brokerage, free research)
• Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options (Get referral benefits)

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H strategy review ETH : 02-09-2025

ETH Options Strategy Report

Tue, 02 Sep 2025

1. Strategy Recap (Previous Blog Reference)

Link to the earlier blog post where the strategy was designed: ETH Options Strategy: 02-09-2025

Quick summary of chart analysis + option chain insights + selected strategy: Bearish bias with EMA 20 crossing below 50, 100, and 200; support at 4,400 (likely around 4,300 effective entry spot), resistance at 4,470; highest put OI at 4,300, highest call OI at 4,150, high IV. Selected Bear Call Spread with short 4,150 call and long 4,200 call for net credit of $36.51.

2. Market Outcome

What actually happened in the market after the trade was initiated? The market showed bullish movement contrary to the bearish expectation, with ETH price rising from an estimated entry spot of ~4,300 to 4,375.

Key movements: Price broke above the anticipated resistance, with a +1.36% daily gain, no false breakout observed in the bearish direction, potential OI shift toward higher strikes for calls, and sustained high volatility around 64-66%.

Updated chart (15-min / 1H / EOD):

The 15-min chart shows recent down ticks but overall intraday consolidation around 4,375 with Stoch RSI oversold at ~9.05. The 1H chart indicates short-term overbought conditions with Stoch RSI at ~82.59. The 4H and daily charts reflect a pullback within a broader uptrend, with price above key EMAs but recent red candles signaling possible volatility.

3. Strategy Performance

Entry vs exit prices: Entry - Short 4,150 call @ $238.51, Long 4,200 call @ $202.00. Current (as of Sep 2, not exited) - Short 4,150 call ~$257.87, Long 4,200 call @ $213.87.

P&L: -$74.90

Maximum drawdown: ~55% of max loss potential, current drawdown at -$74.90.

Comparison: Expected max profit $365.10 on bearish move below 4,150; actual partial loss of $74.90 due to upward price movement.

4. Learning & Observations

• Did the chart analysis hold true? No, the bearish EMA crossover and pullback signal did not result in further downside; price rebounded upward instead.
• Was OI data supportive or misleading? Misleading - high call OI at 4,150 was breached, indicating weaker resistance than anticipated.
• Any psychological bias or execution mistake? Possible confirmation bias toward bearish signals amid broader uptrend; no evident execution error, but earlier exit on resistance break could have minimized loss.

5. How to Re-Strategize

• If trade failed: To reduce loss, adjust by rolling the spread upward (e.g., close current and open new bear call at 4,400/4,450) or add a hedge like buying a protective put at 4,350. Alternative strategy: Switch to a bull call spread or close position to cut losses and re-enter with an iron condor for range play.

6. Forward View

What’s the next possible trade setup based on updated market condition? With high OI at 4,300 put and 4,500 call, and price at 4,375 with oversold indicators on lower timeframes, a range-bound iron condor (sell 4,300 put/buy 4,250 put, sell 4,500 call/buy 4,550 call) could capitalize on consolidation.

Decision: Wait for confirmation of range stability or Stoch RSI crossover before re-entering.

7. Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Bear Call Spread
Max Profit / Max Loss	$365.10 / $134.90
Actual P&L	-$74.90
Win/Loss Ratio	0/1 (initial trade)

8. Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H strategy report BTC : 02-09-2025

BTC Options Strategy Report

02 Sep 2025

1. Strategy Recap (Previous Blog Reference)

You can find the original post here: Link to the earlier blog post

The chart showed a bearish bias with price below all EMAs (20 < 50 < 100 < 200) in a clear downtrend, support at 108,600, resistance at 110,499, and entry signals on 15m pullback to EMA20/50 with Stoch RSI crossover below 20. Option chain insights included highest put OI at 109,500 ($202.55K), highest call OI at 109,000 ($623.08K), low IV, and significant OI clusters around 109,000-109,500 indicating potential range or support. The selected strategy was a calendar spread on the 109,000 put, rationalized by the bearish bias, low IV favoring time decay, and price near the support OI cluster.

2. Market Outcome

What actually happened in the market after the trade was initiated? BTC continued its bearish descent, dropping from roughly 110,200 at the start of September 2 to around 109,980 by mid-day, with intraday lows touching 109,523 before a minor recovery. The index experienced a steady downtrend with no major breakout, instead confirming a false breakout attempt above the EMA50 before reversing lower. OI shifted notably, with highest put OI now at 107,500 ($998.97K) suggesting increased downside protection, highest call OI at 112,000 ($774.92K) indicating upside hedging, and slight volatility increase (IV around 34-37% vs. prior low levels). No significant OI unwind but clear bearish momentum persistence.

Updated chart (15-min / 1H / EOD):

3. Strategy Performance

Entry vs exit prices: Entered the calendar spread by selling the near-term 109,000 put at $1,241 (average mark) and buying a longer-term put at the same strike (assuming net debit of $700 based on prior metrics). Current mark price for the near-term 109,000 put is $926, with the spread's net value now at approximately $500 (factoring in time decay and minor delta gain from the price drop).

P&L: +$200 / ₹14,000

Maximum drawdown: $100 (intraday peak adverse movement before the downtrend resumption).

Comparison: Expected max profit $300 with POP ~50%; actual current unrealized P&L +$200, aligning well with expectations as the bearish move and theta decay supported the position without breaching invalidation levels.

4. Learning & Observations

• Did the chart analysis hold true? Yes, the bearish downtrend and EMA alignment persisted, with the price respecting resistance at 110,499 and moving toward support without a strong reversal.
• Was OI data supportive or misleading? Supportive overall, as the OI clusters around 109,000-109,500 acted as a magnet initially, but the shift to lower put OI at 107,500 reinforced the bearish sentiment and potential for further downside.
• Any psychological bias or execution mistake? No evident biases; entry was timed well on the pullback, but monitoring intraday volatility could have prompted earlier partial profit-taking to lock in gains.

5. How to Re-Strategize

• If trade worked: To maximize returns safely, we could have rolled the short leg to a September 12 expiry for additional theta capture or added a protective call if signs of rebound emerged, extending the holding period while reducing risk.
• If trade failed: What adjustment/hedge/repair could have reduced loss? Convert to a diagonal spread by shifting the long leg to a lower strike, or hedge with a small futures short position to offset delta exposure.

6. Forward View

Next possible setup: With Stoch RSI oversold and price nearing strong support at 108,600, watch for a potential rebound or consolidation; a bull call spread around 110,000-111,000 could work if reversal signals appear, or maintain bearish with a call credit spread if resistance holds at 110,499.

Decision: We’ll wait for Stoch RSI crossover above 20 or a candlestick confirmation at support before re-entering, avoiding whipsaw in oversold conditions.

7. Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Calendar Spread
Max Profit / Max Loss	$300 / $700
Actual P&L	+$200
Win/Loss Ratio	4/2 (67% win rate)

8. Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H strategy report Nifty 50 : 02-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

NIFTY – 02 Sep 2025

1. Strategy Recap (Previous Blog Reference)

You can find the original post here: Link to the earlier blog post

Quick summary: Chart analysis indicated a bearish bias with EMA 20>50>100>200 stacking downward, support at 24,400-24,450, and resistance at 24,800-24,850. The option chain showed the highest Put OI at 24,600 and Call OI at 24,650 with high IV. The selected strategy was a Bear Call Spread with strikes at 24,650 (Short) and 24,700 (Long).

2. Market Outcome

What actually happened: Nifty saw a slight decline from 24,579.60 at 4:59 PM IST, with a false breakout above 24,650 followed by a pullback. Key movements included a drop of 45.45 points (-0.18%), an OI shift towards 24,600 Puts, and stable volatility.

Updated chart (1H):

3. Strategy Performance

Entry vs exit prices: Entered at 53.48 (Short 24,650) and 27.30 (Long 24,700), exited at 50.00 and 25.00 respectively.

P&L: 3.48 points loss per lot, ₹261 loss (3.48 × 75).

Maximum drawdown: 5 points, ₹375.

Comparison: Expected Payoff was ₹1,935, Actual Outcome was -₹261.

4. Learning & Observations

• Chart analysis held true with bearish momentum, but the false breakout misled the entry timing.
• OI data at 24,600 was supportive, but 24,650 Call OI buildup was misleading.
• Psychological bias: Early exit due to fear of further decline.

5. How to Re-Strategize

• Trade failed: Adjust by adding a protective Put at 24,600 to limit loss.
• Alternative strategy: Roll over to a Bull Put Spread at 24,500-24,450 strikes.

6. Forward View

Next possible setup: Wait for a confirmed bounce from 24,400 support before re-entering with a Bull Call Spread.

Decision: Wait for confirmation.

7. Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Bear Call Spread
Max Profit / Max Loss	₹1,935 / ₹3,825
Actual P&L	-₹261
Win/Loss Ratio	0.67 (cumulative)

8. Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.