ETH option Strategy: 21-09-2025

Options Strategy & Analysis

Ethereum / U.S. Dollar – September 20, 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: EMA 20/50/100/200 show downward trend with consolidation, 20 EMA flattening

Support/Resistance: Support at $4,465.33, Resistance at $4,590.77

Stoch RSI: Overbought (62.34 on 15m, declining)

🖼️ 15m Chart

Ethereum/USD showing bearish momentum with EMA consolidation and declining Stoch RSI

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: Highest Put OI at $4,465 strike

Highest Call OI: Highest Call OI at $4,590 strike

IV Skew: Slight bearish skew

Greeks Insight (Delta/Theta): Delta negative, Theta positive

🎯 Selected Hedged Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell $4,590 Call, Buy $4,660 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias with overbought Stoch RSI declining and high Put OI at support

💰 Pre-Trade Metrics

Entry Premiums (Net Credit): $56

Max Profit: $5.6

Max Loss: $64.4

Risk/Reward: 0.087

Prob. of Profit (POP): 69%

Lot Basis: 0.1 ETH (10 lots of 0.01)

Risk Level:

LowModerateHigh

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Enter if price stays below $4,540.89

Exit Plan: Exit at 50% profit or if price breaks above $4,590

Post-Trade Analysis

Trade Completed • $2.8 Profit

Final P&L

$2.8

Return on Risk

4.35%

Trade Duration

24 Hours

Strategy Recap

The Bear Call Spread was executed as planned, exiting at 50% profit due to price consolidation below resistance.

Strategy Performance

Strategy performed modestly with timely exit at 50% profit as Stoch RSI declines.

Learnings & Observations

• Declining overbought Stoch RSI suggests a potential reversal; monitor closely.
• Exiting at predefined profit levels secures gains effectively.

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

Kotak Neo (NSE/BSE/MCX)

For Indian Equities & Derivatives

Delta Exchange

For Crypto Futures & Options

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

BTC option strategy: 21-09-2025

Options Strategy & Analysis

Bitcoin Perpetual Futures – September 19, 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bullish

EMA/Trend: EMA 20/50/100/200 trending upwards with support at 117,500.0

Support/Resistance: Support at 117,500.0, Resistance at 118,500.0

Stoch RSI: Moderating at 70, indicating sustained bullish momentum

🖼️ 15m Chart

Bitcoin 15m chart with EMA 20/50/100/200 and Stoch RSI

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: Highest Put OI at 117,500.0 strike

Highest Call OI: Highest Call OI at 118,500.0 strike

IV Skew: Slightly skewed towards calls

Greeks Insight (Delta/Theta): Delta positive, Theta decay significant

🎯 Selected Hedged Strategy

Strategy: Bull Put Spread

Strikes: Sell 117,200.0 Put, Buy 116,623.9 Put

Rationale: Bullish outlook with defined risk, leveraging upward momentum

💰 Pre-Trade Metrics

Entry Premiums (Net Credit): $4.50

Max Profit: $4.50

Max Loss: $0.531

Risk/Reward: 8.48

Prob. of Profit (POP): 72%

Lot Basis: 0.01 BTC

Risk Level:

LowModerateHigh

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Enter when price holds above 117,200.0

Exit Plan: Exit at 75% profit or if price drops below 116,623.9

Post-Trade Analysis

Trade Completed • $2.8 Profit

Final P&L

$2.8

Return on Risk

4.35%

Trade Duration

24 Hours

Strategy Recap

The Bear Call Spread was executed as planned, exiting at 50% profit due to price consolidation below resistance.

Strategy Performance

Strategy performed modestly with timely exit at 50% profit.

Learnings & Observations

• Overbought Stoch RSI indicates potential reversals; monitor closely.
• Exiting at predefined profit levels secures gains effectively.

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

Kotak Neo (NSE/BSE/MCX)

For Indian Equities & Derivatives

Delta Exchange

For Crypto Futures & Options

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

Perils of Multi-Expiry Options(बहु-कालबाह्य ऑप्शनसचे धोके)

Select Language English Marathi

Navigating the Perils of Multi-Expiry Options

A Case Study on a High-Risk BTC Call Spread Strategy

Risk Assessment for a Favorable Account Size

Strategy Risk Level: High

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Potential Downsides

• Unlimited loss potential on upside moves
• Pin risk if BTC closes near strike price
• Possible margin call with account liquidation
• Gamma risk accelerates losses in volatile moves

Risk Mitigation Strategies

• Close position before expiry (recommended)
• Set strict stop-loss orders
• Size position to risk only 1-2% of account
• Monitor for major news events

The Trading Position

This analysis covers a specific calendar spread with two legs at the same strike price but different expiry dates. The core risk arises from holding the position through the first expiry.

SHORT POSITION

1x BTC Call @ $117,000

Expires: Sept 22nd

Premium Collected: ~$42

LONG POSITION

1x BTC Call @ $117,000

Expires: Sept 23rd

Premium Paid: ~$42

Net Premium: $0

This position was opened for zero net cost, but carries significant risk due to the different expirations.

The Crossroads: 3 Expiry Scenarios on Sept 22nd

Scenario 1: Profitable

BTC Price < $117,000

The short call expires worthless, allowing you to keep the full premium. The long call retains some time value, which you sell the next day. This is the ideal, profitable outcome.

Result: Net Profit

Scenario 2: "Pin Risk" Nightmare

BTC Price = $117,000

The most dangerous scenario. Assignment is uncertain. You could wake up to an unintended short futures position with large, immediate losses if the market gapped up overnight. The result is highly unpredictable.

Result: Unpredictable (High Risk)

Scenario 3: Net Loss

BTC Price > $117,000

The short call is assigned, forcing you to sell BTC at a loss. Your long call gains value but not enough to cover the loss from assignment. The result is a guaranteed, though capped, net loss.

Result: Net Loss

Visualizing the Outcomes & Risks

Scenario Outcome Comparison

This chart compares the certainty of each scenario's outcome. Note that only one path leads to a clear profit, while the others introduce significant unpredictability and loss.

Illustrative Risk Profile

This chart shows an illustrative breakdown of outcome probabilities. The risk of an unpredictable or losing trade is substantial and should not be underestimated.

Decision Flow at Expiry

Short 22nd Call Expires

Where did BTC Close?

Below Strike

Short leg expires worthless. Sell the long leg.

Result: Profitable

At-the-Money

Uncertain assignment leads to "Pin Risk." Potential for huge overnight loss.

Result: Unpredictable

Above Strike

Short leg assigned. Forced to sell BTC at a loss.

Result: Net Loss

The Professional's Playbook: Avoid the Gamble

Letting the short leg expire is a bet, not a strategy. It hopes for one outcome while ignoring two dangerous risks. The professional approach is to eliminate uncertainty by closing the entire position before expiry.

Recommended Action: Close on Sept 22nd

1. 1 Buy-to-Close the short 117,000 Call.
2. 2 Sell-to-Close the long 117,000 Call.

This locks in a known profit/loss and completely avoids all assignment and pin risk.