Nifty 50 chart analysis for 04-09-2025

📊 Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Nifty 50 Index (NSE)

🔹 15m Chart:

- EMA Trend: EMAs are tangled with no clear stacking order. Price is above EMA 200 (24,691.02), suggesting a potential bullish bias, but recent price action shows a sharp drop. No significant EMA crossovers observed.

- StochRSI: Overbought (>0.8) with a value of 75.00. No clear bullish or bearish crossover (%K vs %D) at the current moment.

- Divergence: No clear divergence or convergence observed due to limited data points in this timeframe.

- Entry/Exit: Caution advised due to tangled EMAs and overbought StochRSI. No strong entry signal.

- Consolidation Range: 24,735.60 – 24,848.05

🔹 1h Chart:

- EMA Trend: EMAs are tangled with EMA 20 (red) above EMA 50 (orange), EMA 100 (cyan), and EMA 200 (navy blue). Price is above EMA 200 (24,782.03), indicating a bullish bias. No recent EMA crossovers.

- StochRSI: Overbought (>0.8) with a value of 95.51. No clear crossover observed.

- Divergence: No clear divergence or convergence observed.

- Entry/Exit: Caution due to overbought StochRSI and tangled EMAs. No strong entry signal.

- Consolidation Range: 24,675.10 – 24,847.80

🔹 4h Chart:

- EMA Trend: EMAs show a bullish stack with EMA 20 above EMA 50, EMA 100, and EMA 200. Price is above EMA 200 (24,632.77), supporting a bullish trend. No significant crossovers.

- StochRSI: Neutral (between 0.2 and 0.8) with a value of 70.35. No clear crossover.

- Divergence: No clear divergence or convergence observed.

- Entry/Exit: Potential long entry if confirmed by lower timeframes, but caution due to lack of StochRSI confirmation.

- Consolidation Range: 24,632.77 – 24,848.90

⚠️ Breakout Watch:

- Valid Breakout: Not met. Price needs to close outside the range with higher timeframe trend alignment.

- Fake Breakout Signs: None observed.

✅ Final Bias: Neutral  

🎯 Suggested Action: Stay Out

Eth option strategy: 04-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

ETH – Wed, 03 Sep 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: 20<50<100<200 (downtrend)

Support/Resistance: Support at 4352.63, Resistance at 4431.91

Entry Signals: 15m pullback to EMA20/50 with Stoch RSI crossover near oversold (<20)

🖼️ 15 Min Chart

ETH 15-minute chart showing bearish signals

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 4400 (OI: $4.77K)

Highest Call OI: 4400 (OI: $5.75K)

IV: High (implied from premium levels)

Volume/OI Notes: Significant OI clusters at 4400, moderate volume at 4380

🎯 Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 4400 Call, Buy 4420 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias, high IV, and resistance at 4400 OI level

💰 Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell 4400 Call at $114.53, Buy 4420 Call at $104.04

Max Profit: $1050 (Net Credit × Lot Size: ($114.53 - $104.04) × 0.1 ETH)

Max Loss: $170 (Spread Width – Net Credit: 20 - 10.49)

Risk/Reward: 1:6.15

POP: ~54% (1 - |Delta of short strike 0.46|)

Lot Basis: ETH + 0.1 ETH

Risk Level:

Low Moderate High

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to EMA20/50 with Stoch RSI <20, confirm near 4400 resistance

Exit Plan: TP at 50% max profit, SL at 20% max loss, invalidate above 4420

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading

Low brokerage, free research

Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options

Get referral benefits

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H strategy review ETH: 03-09-2025

English

मराठी

Options Strategy: Post-Trade Analysis

Ethereum – September 03, 2025

Trade Completed • ₹500 Profit

P&L

₹500

Profit Percentage

33.3%

Trade Duration

2 Days

Pre-Trade Plan

Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: EMAs (20/50/100/200) showing a downward crossover, indicating a bearish trend.

Support/Resistance: Support at 4,300; Resistance at 4,450.

Entry Signals: Break below 4,375 with Stoch RSI overbought confirmation.

Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 4,300 strike

Highest Call OI: 4,500 strike

IV: High vs historical

Volume/OI Notes: Increased put volume suggesting bearish sentiment.

Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 4,450 call, Buy 4,500 call

Rationale: Bearish bias, high put OI at 4,300, elevated IV.

Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell 4,450 call at 50, Buy 4,500 call at 30

Max Profit: ₹1,000 ((50 - 30) x 50)

Max Loss: ₹1,500 ((4500 - 4450) - (50 - 30)) x 50

Risk/Reward: 1:0.67

POP:

60%

Trade Note

Lot Basis: Ethereum, 50 lot size

Entry Trigger: Break below 4,375 with Stoch RSI overbought.

Exit Plan: TP at 70% of max profit, SL at 4,500 breach.

---

Post-Trade Analysis

Strategy Recap

The strategy was a Bear Call Spread (Sell 4,450c, Buy 4,500c), designed based on a bearish technical outlook where key EMAs were crossing downward. Option chain data supported this with high put OI at 4,300 and elevated IV.

Original Strategy Reference:
https://marketswithroto.blogspot.com/2025/09/eth-option-strategy-03-09-2025.html

Market Outcome

Post-initiation, the market experienced a sharp decline. There was a brief false breakout above 4,450, which quickly reversed, leading to a drop towards 4,375. The 15-min chart showed a 2.37% drop, OI shifted further towards puts, and volatility remained moderate.

Strategy Performance

Entry Details

• Sell 4,450 call: @ 50
• Buy 4,500 call: @ 30
• Net Credit: 20

Exit Details

• Sell 4,450 call: @ 20
• Buy 4,500 call: @ 10
• Net Debit: 10

Performance Summary

• P&L (Points): 10 points profit (20 Credit - 10 Debit)
• P&L (₹): ₹500 profit (10 points x 50 lot size)
• Maximum Drawdown: 10 points (₹500)
• Expected vs Actual: Expected max profit was ₹1,000, actual profit was ₹500

Profit Achievement

0 ₹500 / ₹1,000 100%

Learnings & Observations

• Chart Analysis: The bearish trend and identified support/resistance levels held true and were accurate.
• OI Data: The OI data was supportive, as the increasing put OI correctly anticipated the downward price movement.
• Execution: No significant psychological biases were noted; execution was timely and followed the plan.

How to Re-Strategize

• If Trade Worked (as it did): To potentially maximize returns more safely, a protective put could have been added at the 4,300 support level to capture more of the downside.
• If Trade Had Failed: An adjustment could have involved rolling the spread to the next week to allow more time, or converting the position into a Bear Put Spread if the bearish conviction strengthened.
• Alternative Strategy: For a more conservative approach, a 4,400/4,450 Bear Call Spread could have been used for a higher probability of profit, albeit with a smaller premium.

Forward View

A potential short setup is forming. If the price breaks conclusively below the 4,300 support level with confirmation from an overbought Stoch RSI turning down, it could signal further downside. Will wait for this confirmation before considering a new entry.

Metrics Snapshot

Strategy Name	Expected Max Profit	Max Loss	Actual P&L	Prob. of Profit
Bear Call Spread	₹1,000	₹1,500	₹500	60%

Disclaimer:

This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading options involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Btc option Strategy : 04-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

BTC – Sep 03, 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Bias: Bearish

EMA/Trend: 20<50<100<200 (EMA stacking below 200 EMA)

Support/Resistance: Support at 110,800.0, Resistance at 113,327.5

Entry Signals: Short-term pullback to EMA20/EMA50 with bearish Stoch RSI crossover

🖼️ 15 Min Chart

User-provided static chart will appear here

📈 Option Chain Analysis

Highest Put OI: 111800 (OI: $13.72K)

Highest Call OI: 111200 (OI: $10.07K)

IV: High (implied volatility not explicitly shown, but inferred from price action)

Volume/OI Notes: Significant OI clusters at 111800 (puts) and 111200 (calls)

🎯 Selected Strategy

Strategy: Bear Call Spread

Strikes: Sell 111200 Call, Buy 111400 Call

Rationale: Bearish bias with high IV and highest Call OI at 111200

💰 Metrics

Entry Premiums: Sell 111200 at $11.16, Buy 111400 at $12.01

Max Profit: $85 × 0.01 BTC (Net Credit × Lot Size)

Max Loss: $215 - $85 = $130

Risk/Reward: 0.65

POP: ~53% (1 - |0.47|)

Lot Basis: BTC (0.01 BTC)

📌 Trade Note

Entry Trigger: Pullback to EMA20/EMA50 with Stoch RSI below 40

Exit Plan: TP at 50% of max profit, SL at 111400 break, Invalidation above 113,327.5

🔗 Recommended Trading Platforms

• Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading (Low brokerage, free research)
• Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options (Get referral benefits)

⚠️ Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.

24H strategy review:03-09-2025

Options Strategy Report

NIFTY – Wed, 03 Sep 2025

📊 Chart Analysis

Link to the earlier blog post

Quick summary: The chart analysis indicated a bearish bias with the price below all EMAs (20<50<100<200) and key support at 109,228.7, resistance at 113,493.4. Option chain showed highest put OI at 109,950 and call OI at 110,000 with high IV. The selected strategy was a **Bear Call Spread:** Sell 110,000 Call at $1,368.3, Buy 110,500 Call at $1,115.0, for a net credit of $253.3.

2. Market Outcome

After initiating the trade, Bitcoin experienced a significant downward movement, dropping from around 111,266 to approximately 106,570 by the evening of September 3, 2025. Key movements included a sharp decline, potentially influenced by US-related news or market events (as indicated by icons on the charts), with no major breakout upward but rather a continuation of the bearish trend. Volatility appeared to remain elevated, aligning with the initial high IV assessment. OI shifts weren't directly observable, but the price action supported the bearish outlook without breaching the resistance at 110,000 for long. Updated chart: The provided 15-min, intraday, and multi-day charts show the price cascading lower, with EMAs continuing to slope downward and Stoch RSI fluctuating, reaching overbought levels near 95 during the drop, suggesting strong downward momentum despite potential short-term oversold conditions in some timeframes.

3. Strategy Performance

Entry prices: Sold 110,000 Call at $1,368.3, Bought 110,500 Call at $1,115.0 (net credit $253.3).

Exit prices (based on current theoretical values using Black-Scholes approximation at spot 106,570): 110,000 Call at ~$197, 110,500 Call at ~$141 (net debit to close ~$56).

P&L: +$197 in points (profit), or +$197 (considering position size; scaled to $1.97 if assuming 0.01 BTC lot).

Maximum drawdown faced: ~$60 (when price temporarily rose to 111,266, increasing the spread value to ~$313).

Comparison of Expected Payoff vs Actual Outcome: Expected max profit $253.3 with 67% POP; actual realized ~78% of max profit, outperforming expectations due to the swift bearish move.

4. Learning & Observations

• The chart analysis held true, with the bearish bias confirmed by the price drop below support levels.
• OI data was supportive, as the high call OI at 110,000 acted as resistance, preventing significant upside.
• No apparent psychological bias or execution mistakes— the pullback entry with Stoch RSI confirmation worked as planned. However, the rapid decline highlights the importance of monitoring volatility spikes in crypto markets.

5. How to Re-Strategize

• Since the trade worked, to maximize returns safely, one could have added a protective put or rolled the spread downward earlier in the move to capture more credit while maintaining the bearish position.
• Alternatively, scaling in with additional spreads at confirmation points could have amplified profits without increasing risk disproportionately.

6. Forward View

Based on the updated market condition, with price at lows around 106,570 and Stoch RSI showing overbought readings amid the downtrend, there's potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation. However, the overall trend remains bearish below the EMAs. I'll wait for a clear signal like a Stoch RSI crossover below 80 or a retest of support before re-entering, possibly with another bearish spread if resistance holds.

7. Metrics Snapshot

Metric	Value
Strategy Name	Bear Call Spread
Max Profit / Max Loss	$253.3 / $246.7
Actual P&L	+$197
Win/Loss Ratio (Cumulative)	1/0 (100% win rate)

⚠️ Disclaimerअस्वीकरण

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly. पर्याय व्यापारात महत्त्वपूर्ण धोका असतो आणि तो प्रत्येक गुंतवणूकदारासाठी योग्य नाही. कृपया यात सामील होण्यापूर्वी धोके समजून घ्या आणि आपल्या आर्थिक सल्लागाराचा सल्ला घ्या. सेबीच्या मार्गदर्शक तत्त्वांनुसार, मागील कामगिरी भविष्यातील परिणामांची हमी देत नाही. जबाबदारीने व्यापार करा.

Nifty 50 option strategy :04-09-2025

Options Strategy Reportपर्याय धोरण अहवाल

NIFTY – Wed, 03 Sep 2025निफ्टी – बुधवार, ०३ सप्टेंबर २०२५

📊 Chart Analysisचार्ट विश्लेषण

Bias:कल: Bearishमंदीचा

EMA/Trend:ईएमए/ट्रेंड: 20>50>100>200 (downward stackingखालील दिशेने स्टॅक)

Support/Resistance:समर्थन/प्रतिरोध: Support at 24,450, Resistance at 24,780२४,४५० वर समर्थन, २४,७८० वर प्रतिरोध

Entry Signals:प्रवेश सिग्नल: 15m pullback to EMA20/EMA50 with Stoch RSI crossover below 40१५ मिनीट ईएमए२०/ईएमए५० वर पुलबॅक स्टोकॅस्टिक RSI ४० च्या खाली क्रॉसओव्हरसह

🖼️ 15 Min Chart१५ मिनीट चार्ट

User-provided static chart will appear hereवापरकर्त्याने दिलेला स्थिर चार्ट येथे दिसेल

📈 Option Chain Analysisऑप्शन चेन विश्लेषण

Highest Put OI:सर्वाधिक पुट ओआय: 24,450 (28.65 OI)

Highest Call OI:सर्वाधिक कॉल ओआय: 24,750 (114.20 OI)

IV:अस्थिरता: High (based on IV values around 8.6-9.8)उच्च (अस्थिरता मूल्यांवर आधारित ८.६-९.८ च्या आसपास)

Volume/OI Notes:व्हॉल्यूम/ओआय नोट्स: Significant OI clusters at 24,450 and 24,750२४,४५० आणि २४,७५० वर महत्त्वपूर्ण ओआय क्लस्टर

🎯 Selected Strategyनिवडलेले धोरण

Strategy:धोरण: Bear Call Spreadबेअर कॉल स्प्रेड

Strikes:स्ट्राइक्स: Sell 24,750 Call, Buy 24,800 Call२४,७५० कॉल विका, २४,८०० कॉल खरेदी करा

Rationale:तर्क: Bearish bias, high IV, resistance at 24,750 OIमंदीचा कल, उच्च अस्थिरता, २४,७५० ओआयवर प्रतिरोध

💰 Metricsमापन

Entry Premiums:प्रवेश प्रीमियम: Sell 104.55, Buy 81.15विका १०४.५५, खरेदी ८१.१५

Max Profit:कमाल नफा: ₹23.40 × 75 = ₹1,755

Max Loss:कमाल तोटा: (50 - 23.40) × 75 = ₹2,010

Risk/Reward:जोखीम/पुरस्कार: 1,755 ÷ 2,010 ≈ 0.87

POP:पीओपी: ≈ 1 - |0.49| ≈ 51%

Lot Basis:लॉट आधारित: NIFTY + 75

📌 Trade Noteव्यापार टीप

Entry Trigger:प्रवेश ट्रिगर: Pullback to 24,750 with Stoch RSI below 40२४,७५० वर पुलबॅक स्टोकॅस्टिक RSI ४० च्या खाली

Exit Plan:बाहेर पडण्याची योजना: TP at 50% max profit, SL at 24,800 breach५०% कमाल नफ्यावर TP, २४,८०० च्या उल्लंघनावर SL

🔗 Recommended Trading Platformsशिफारस केलेले ट्रेडिंग प्लॅटफॉर्म

• Kotak Neo – Seamless Trading (Low brokerage, free research)कोटक निओ – अखंड ट्रेडिंग (कमी दलाली, मोफत संशोधन)
• Delta Exchange – Crypto Futures & Options (Get referral benefits)डेल्टा एक्सचेंज – क्रिप्टो फ्यूचर्स आणि ऑप्शन्स (रेफरल फायदे मिळवा)

⚠️ Disclaimerअस्वीकरण

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly. पर्याय व्यापारात महत्त्वपूर्ण धोका असतो आणि तो प्रत्येक गुंतवणूकदारासाठी योग्य नाही. कृपया यात सामील होण्यापूर्वी धोके समजून घ्या आणि आपल्या आर्थिक सल्लागाराचा सल्ला घ्या. सेबीच्या मार्गदर्शक तत्त्वांनुसार, मागील कामगिरी भविष्यातील परिणामांची हमी देत नाही. जबाबदारीने व्यापार करा.

24H strategy review: 03-09-2025

NIFTY Options Strategy Review

NIFTY – 03 Sep 2025

1. Strategy Recap

Link to the earlier blog post where the strategy was designed

Chart analysis indicated a **bearish bias** with EMAs in downtrend alignment (20>50>100>200) on 1H/4H timeframes, support at 24,400, resistance at 24,700, and entry signals on pullback to EMA20/50 on 15m with Stoch RSI crossover below 20. Option chain showed highest Put OI at 24,400 (6.79 lakhs) and Call OI at 24,600 (13.63 lakhs), with high IV (9.7-11.0) and significant OI clusters supporting resistance. Selected strategy was a **Bear Call Spread** (Short 24,600 Call, Long 24,700 Call) for a bearish outlook expecting limited upside.

2. Market Outcome

The market moved against the bearish expectation, opening at 24,616.50, dipping to a low of 24,535.10 early in the session (testing near the 24,400 support), then staging a strong recovery with a breakout above the 24,700 resistance level. It closed at 24,715.05, up 135.45 points (+0.55%), driven by positive global cues and buying in key sectors. Key movements included a false downside breakout initially, followed by a sharp reversal, OI shifts toward higher strikes (e.g., Call OI building at 25,000), and declining volatility as the rally sustained. No major volatility spikes were noted, with IV settling around 10-12%. Updated chart (based on EOD 15-min/1H view): The price broke above EMA50 and tested near EMA100, with Stoch RSI entering overbought territory (94.87) on 15-min, signaling momentum shift.

3. Strategy Performance

Entry prices: Short 24,600 Call at 137.75, Long 24,700 Call at 114.00 (net credit 23.75 points). Exit triggered at SL of 24,650 (mid-session as price rallied), with approximate exit prices: Short 24,600 Call ~187.75, Long 24,700 Call ~137.75 (net debit ~50 points, accounting for intrinsic value and remaining time premium).

P&L: Loss of 26.25 points per lot (23.75 credit - 50 debit), equating to **-₹1,968.75** (26.25 × 75 lot size). Maximum drawdown faced: ~30 points intraday before SL hit. Expected payoff: Max profit ₹1,781.25 if below 24,600; actual outcome: Partial loss due to timely SL, versus potential full max loss of ₹5,718.75 if held to close.

4. Learning & Observations

• Chart Analysis: The chart analysis did not hold true, as the anticipated downside from resistance at 24,700 resulted in a false breakdown followed by a bullish breakout, invalidating the bearish bias.
• OI Data: OI data was somewhat misleading, with the 24,600 Call cluster failing to act as strong resistance, and shifts occurring to higher calls as buyers dominated.
• Psychological Bias/Execution Mistake: No clear psychological bias or execution mistake—entry trigger aligned with pullback and Stoch RSI signal, but the reversal was swift due to external factors like positive US market sentiment. Overall, underscores the risk of relying heavily on OI in volatile sessions without broader confirmation.

5. How to Re-Strategize

• Adjustment: Since the trade failed, losses could have been reduced by adding a hedge (e.g., buying a far OTM Put for protection) or adjusting early on breakout signs—rolling the short call up to 24,800 while keeping the long, or converting to a ladder spread.
• Alternative Strategy: Switch to a neutral Iron Condor (e.g., short 24,800 Call/24,500 Put, long 24,900 Call/24,400 Put) to capture range-bound moves post-volatility, or rollover to next weekly expiry with tighter strikes.

6. Forward View

Based on updated market conditions, the setup now appears bullish, with price above all EMAs on daily timeframe, breakout above 24,700 resistance, and Stoch RSI on daily at oversold levels (37.24) suggesting potential upside continuation toward 25,000. Highest Put OI has shifted to ~24,500, Call OI to ~25,000, with IV moderate (around 10-12%). I'll re-enter immediately with a **Bull Put Spread** (Short 24,700 Put, Long 24,600 Put) if 15-min confirms pullback to EMA20 with Stoch RSI above 80 crossover.

7. Metrics Snapshot

Metric	Value
Strategy Name	Bear Call Spread
Max Profit	₹1,781.25
Max Loss	₹5,718.75
Actual P&L	-₹1,968.75
Win/Loss Ratio (Cumulative)	0/1 (first trade in series)

8. Disclaimer

Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Please ensure you understand the risks involved and consult with your financial advisor before participating. As per SEBI guidelines, past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.